{"id":35841,"date":"2024-08-15T18:18:58","date_gmt":"2024-08-15T18:18:58","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/greatdemo.com\/?p=35841"},"modified":"2024-08-15T18:18:58","modified_gmt":"2024-08-15T18:18:58","slug":"la-falacia-de-las-lineas-de-base","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/greatdemo.com\/es\/the-fallacy-of-baselines\/","title":{"rendered":"La falacia de las l\u00edneas de base"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>En el pasado, he recomendado \"establecer una l\u00ednea de base\" como punto de partida para el seguimiento de las m\u00e9tricas. \"Hac\u00eda un seguimiento de algunos trimestres para establecer una l\u00ednea de base\", dec\u00eda. Ahora me doy cuenta de que es un error.<\/p>\n<p>Cuando se analizan las m\u00e9tricas de preventa o ventas, no existe un punto de referencia. Todos los datos son importantes. Calificar los primeros trimestres de \"referencia\" sesga artificialmente la percepci\u00f3n de lo que es \"bueno\" o \"malo\".<\/p>\n<p>Ejemplo: Si empiezas a medir la temperatura exterior diaria en junio (hemisferio norte), entonces tus primeros meses de \"referencia\" obligar\u00e1n a que los meses de oto\u00f1o e invierno parezcan especialmente fr\u00edos (o malos).<\/p>\n<p>Lo que realmente le interesa es el cambio de un punto a otro y, a continuaci\u00f3n, el cambio agregado a lo largo del tiempo y de trozos de tiempo. \u00bfLa primera derivada (la velocidad) es positiva o negativa (y las cosas mejoran o empeoran)? \u00bfLa segunda derivada (la aceleraci\u00f3n) es positiva o negativa (y las cosas mejoran o empeoran cada vez m\u00e1s r\u00e1pido?).<\/p>\n<p>El examen longitudinal de los datos (a lo largo del tiempo) permite comparar las cifras actuales con las hist\u00f3ricas. Quiz\u00e1 otra forma de percibirlo sea que <em>cada<\/em> el punto de referencia anterior forma parte de su l\u00ednea de base.<\/p>\n<p>La conclusi\u00f3n es que hay que recopilar datos. Muchos datos, \u00a1y no espere a empezar ya! Porque sin datos, tus decisiones se basan en suposiciones, impresiones, opiniones y presunciones. Y ya sabes lo que pasa cuando se hacen suposiciones.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>En el pasado, he recomendado \"establecer una l\u00ednea de base\" como punto de partida para el seguimiento de las m\u00e9tricas. \"Hacer un seguimiento de unos cuantos trimestres para establecer una l\u00ednea de base\".<\/p>","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":35842,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"default","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"set","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"ast-content-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"footnotes":""},"categories":[14],"tags":[7],"class_list":["post-35841","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-advanced_topics","tag-blog"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/greatdemo.com\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/35841","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/greatdemo.com\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/greatdemo.com\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/greatdemo.com\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/greatdemo.com\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=35841"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/greatdemo.com\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/35841\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":35843,"href":"https:\/\/greatdemo.com\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/35841\/revisions\/35843"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/greatdemo.com\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/35842"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/greatdemo.com\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=35841"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/greatdemo.com\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=35841"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/greatdemo.com\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=35841"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}